Can RTI Predict High School Dropout Rates?

By Dr. Evelyn Johnson
Boise State University

Last Wednesday, together with Dr. Juli Pool from Boise State University, I gave a webinar on screening for reading problems within an RTI framework. The event was hosted by the National Council for Learning Disabilities (NCLD) and is archived on their Web site. The goal of the webinar was to provide an overview of the screening process and to discuss specific issues and measures related to screening for reading problems across the grade levels.

By far, the majority of the questions we received when our presentation ended related to secondary screening tools, so I thought I would highlight here some of the elements we discussed in that webinar (and in other articles on the NCLD’s RTI Action Network). One question we received was whether there were no-cost options for screening at the secondary level. To this question I gave a fairly long answer (as I’m unfortunately prone to do!).

How screening is conducted depends on a number of factors (Jenkins, 2003), including:

• What is the outcome we are trying to predict?
• How have we defined that outcome?
• What level of risk are we interested in identifying?

For high school, one could argue that one purpose of screening is to identify students who are likely to drop out without targeted support. This certainly isn’t the only way the RTI model can be used at the high school level, but it does represent one potential use of the framework. A number of research studies examining high school dropout rates have identified key indicators that predict dropping out as early as ninth grade (with some research indicating the indicators are highly predictive at sixth grade as well). These key indicators include:

1. Attendance during "transition" years, where transition is defined as the first year of middle school and the first year of high school.
2. Attendance during the first 20 days of those transition years.
3. Cumulative GPAs, especially in core classes like English and math.
4. Failed courses, and more specifically, failed core courses.
5. "On track" progress in terms of credit completion.

The National High School Center has developed a free tool called the Early Warning System (EWS) that can be used to monitor and analyze these indicators –- thus identifying students who are "red-flagged" and likely in need of support if they are to be successful in school. Much of the research on the predictors listed above has been conducted in larger urban areas, like Philadelphia and Chicago. Therefore, it will be important for schools to test whether the predictors are accurate within their own setting. For example, in a recent analysis in Idaho, we (Johnson & Semmelroth, 2009) found that attendance was not as strong a predictor of dropout rates in rural or suburban districts. We’ll be presenting that data at next month's CEDS conference in Philadelphia.

We are also currently examining whether the EWS can be expanded to include state-level assessment data that could be used to identify students who have not met grade-level performance benchmarks, in addition to screening data in reading and math (click here to review screening tools that have been reviewed by the National RTI TA Center). For math, we plan to determine whether an algebra progress monitoring tool developed by Project AAIMS is predictive of student performance in math (as measured by Idaho state assessments). Integrating this data within the EWS tool can help provide more comprehensive data, especially when a school uses it to inform decisions about how to improve their Tier 1 program, and demonstrate how to best devise appropriate interventions within the Tier 2 system that support the needs of struggling students.

Next entry, as promised, I will review some outcome data from secondary schools that have successfully implemented RTI.

Comments

[Kelly Hart]

I found your post to be very much correlated as to my college course project. I am currently working at an alternative school that serves middle to high school age students. The district in which I work has a 72% high school graduation rate. My interest lies in the key indicators that were listed: attendance in the first 20 school days, attendance during transition periods, cumulative GPA, failed core courses credit completion. I am curious if you have done much work with mentoring and how it effects the drop out rate. Our district does a lot of RTI strategies. It has made a difference within our small setting. Enjoyed the article. It reaffirmed my feelings for the need of a mentoring program for these high risk youth.

[Evelyn Johnson]

Thanks for the post Kelly. The University of Oregon I believe has several projects looking at mentoring type projects such as "Check In" programs. Chris Murray and others are working on this.

I believe that at the secondary level, a combination of approaches is going to be most effective - improving the core program, including research-based interventions (both academic and behavioral), and rethinking some of the structures of service delivery.
Evelyn

[Jeff Horn]

Hi,

Has a correlation been done between RTI and motivation of students in general. I am working on a project to try and correlate data between the motivation of students, general performance, and their reading ability. My goal is to find simple and effective interventions to modify instruction for this segment of our population.

thanks

Jeff

[Nancy]

I'm very interested to read the research on the connection between RTI and drop out rates. My school has just begun the process of screening students. Every student in the school was given a reading screening. At risk students are now in the process of being assessed. It's been interesting to see the number of regular education students who have been recommended for the second round of screening and will, hopefully, get the help they need without having to fail a core class or have an IEP in order to receive services.

[Fabian Ramirez]

It's important to have this type of research so educator's can be able to determine the red flags. Maybe with that type of information teachers can help prevent students from dropping out.